State Responsible Forecast Reports

The Secretary of Public Safety is responsible for producing an annual forecast of the number of inmates, adult and juvenile, for whom the state has responsibility. The Secretary must also estimate the number of inmates for whom localities are responsible. These forecasts are essential to estimating future capital needs and operating expenses for prisons, jails and juvenile correctional centers.

These forecasts are produced by two committees using a consensus method. A technical committee employs quantitative methods to make projections based upon past trends and patterns. A policy committee examines projections presented by the technical committee in the light of policy issues that are likely to affect future inmate populations.

The Policy Advisory Committee is chaired by the Secretary of Public Safety and is comprised of representatives from Virginia’s executive, legislative and judicial branches, faculty from leading universities, and local and state law enforcement. Their diverse backgrounds and experiences promote broad discussions of numerous issues in criminal justice. It is the responsibility of the Policy Advisory Committee to discuss those issues that they feel may impact incarcerated populations in the future. Committee discussions include such subjects as the expected level and type of crime in the future, parole grant rates, sentencing guidelines and expected rates of recidivism. Ultimately, the committee will select a scenario it considers the most likely to occur.

The Technical Advisory Committee is chaired by the Manager of Economic and Regulatory Analysis Section of the Department of Planning and Budget. This committee is comprised of technical experts from the Department of Corrections, Department of Criminal Justice Services, Department of Juvenile Justice, Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission, Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission, Commission on Youth and private research organizations.